2024 CMS Winter Meeting
Vancouver/Richmond, Nov 29 - Dec 2, 2024
Optimization, control, dynamics and stochastics: interplay and applications
Org: Eric Foxall (University of British Columbia), Jinniao Qiu (University of Calgary) and Zhongwei Shen (UA)
[PDF]
Org: Eric Foxall (University of British Columbia), Jinniao Qiu (University of Calgary) and Zhongwei Shen (UA)
[PDF]
- ERIC FOXALL, University of British Columbia Okanagan
- AMY HURFORD, Memorial University
Optimal control strategies for community and traveler isolation under resource constraints [PDF]
- AMY HURFORD, Memorial University
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Health authorities allocate limited resources to support the isolation of infected community members and travelers to reduce infectious disease spread. We consider an epidemic model and characterize the optimal controls. When resources are not limiting, if the maximum daily isolation rate is high, the optimal control corresponds to an elimination strategy, which results in a small outbreak of short duration. However, if the maximum daily isolation rate is low, the optimal control corresponds to a mitigation strategy, which results in a large outbreak of short duration. When resources are limiting, the optimal control is any strategy that uses all available resources, including circuit breaker strategies of this type, which results in a large outbreak of a duration ranging from short to long. We recommend implementing control measures at the start of an outbreak, as this action is always optimal, and is consistent with the precautionary principle, which recommends action even when important information, such whether resources will be limiting, is unknown. The elimination strategy results in substantially smaller outbreaks of short duration, and increasing the maximum daily isolation rate, or increasing the total resources available so as to achieve elimination, is likely optimal in some circumstances. Our modelling could be reformulated to consider multiple outbreaks over a fixed period of time, and would then serve as a suitable framework to further explore the conditions for when travel measures are an optimal control.
- TYLER MEADOWS, Queen's University
- NHU NGUYEN, University of Rhode Island
- JINIAO QIU, University of Calgary
- POURIA RAMAZI, Brock University
Towards Optimizing Vaccine Uptake Through Tailored Communication Strategies [PDF]
- NHU NGUYEN, University of Rhode Island
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In this talk, I will explore how decision-making strategies influence vaccine uptake, focusing on two key groups: evidence-based decision-makers, who prioritize immediate personal benefits, and social-based decision-makers, who rely on the experiences and behaviors of others. The proportions of these two types within a population are critical in determining vaccine uptake, a well-established theoretical insight. I will demonstrate that these proportions are both theoretically identifiable and practically estimable. By presenting fitting results from jurisdictions across the USA and Canada, I will show that these proportions can vary significantly. These findings pave the way for developing tailored communication strategies to influence each group's decisions, ultimately optimizing public health efforts and enhancing vaccine promotion effectiveness.
- SIDDHARTH SABHARWAL, Texas A&M University
- ZHONGWEI SHEN, University of Alberta
- XIONG WANG, Johns Hopkins University
- YANG YANG, University of Calgary
- KEXUE ZHANG, Queen's University
- ZHONGWEI SHEN, University of Alberta